Abstract
This is a pre-analysis plan for a quasi-experimental study evaluating the effects of Finland’s 2025 “Decree on National Labour-Shortage Sectors.” Typically, recent labor immigrants can only work in the occupation for which their residence permit has been granted. The new shortage list allows immigrant workers to switch their occupation to those listed in a nationwide list of shortage occupations. There are currently 9 occupations (4-digit level ISCO classification) on the list, and the list will be updated annually. We will study the effects on worker flows and average earnings in the affected occupations. We will use a difference-in-differences strategy, comparing occupations listed on the shortage list to those not on the list. We utilize information from regional guidelines about occupations which have already been classified as labor shortage occupations by the regional authorities. In this pre-analysis plan, we show the pre-trends for our main occupation-level analyses, and the estimate for 1 partially treated month, before the data for more post period months becomes available.